SKM Economics, part of the Sinclair Knight Merz Group, was appointed by a consortium of Infratil Australia and Airport Group International (AGI) to prepare detailed air traffic forecasts for airports as part of Phase 2 of the FAC’s airport privatisation.
This involved use of the firm’s air traffic forecasting modelling suite to develop estimates of inbound and outbound passenger movements, aircraft movements and freight volumes by direction. The model has been developed in such a way as to produce forecasts for both domestic and international traffic.
A core element of the international component of the model is the ability to forecast inbound tourism to Australia by country of origin, place of arrival and airport of entry. The model incorporates a considerable amount of economic data including historical information on air traffic by airport, tourism statistics (domestic and international - arrivals and departures), real air fares, GDP and GSP measures for countries and states of Australia; as well as demand elasticity measures.
The consortium was successful in its bid for the Northern Territory airports of Darwin, Alice Springs and Tennant Creek.
The involvement of the firm in this project demonstrates its skills in the following areas: