Passenger Demand for Fast Rail Services
Abstract
The Rooftop Model was developed by British Rail in the 1980s as a technique for estimating passenger demand for individual train services. Given a timetable of train services, the model allocates passengers to services based on the passengers’ departure, arrival and travel time preferences. Although the Rooftop Model has not yet had widespread application in Australia, it is a potentially useful tool for measuring network performance (in terms of overall passenger travel time) and optimising rolling stock and timetables.
This paper describes the model and its application to the planning of Victoria’s Regional Fast Rail services. The model was calibrated for the Victorian regional rail network using an extensive program of interview and stated-preference surveys. The calibrated model estimated current peak service loads across a typical weekday with a fair degree of accuracy. Future proposed timetables were also tested with the model to estimate the likely effects of the new service patterns.
This paper also describes how the Rooftop Model can be linked to a conventional four-step model to estimate the effects of land use, population and employment on future rail demand.