Where is Renewable Energy going in Australia
Abstract
The Australian Government's new legislation sets a 9500 GWh target for the new renewable power generation. This paper first presents an analysis of how the Australian renewable energy industry is responding to the Mandatory Renewable Energy Target (MRET). Additional demand arising from the voluntary Green Power program is also considered. The paper then discusses how this relates to the overall direction of development if renewable power generation in Australia.
The analysis of industry response to MRET is based on the Sinclair Knight Merz database of commissioned and planned generation projects that are eligible for the renewable energy certificates under the new legislation*. Tables are presented showing an outline of the extent of activity in each of the renewable technology and resource areas. Current and proposed industry project activity is then compared with forecast developments based on the economic and resource fundamentals of the available renewable generation options. The final table in the series shows an estimate of the expected contribution to achieving the target from each of the main renewable technologies and resources The financial returns renewable energy generators can expect are also discussed.
Author
Dr Graham Redding
Sinclair Knight Merz
* The Sinclair Knight Merz database has detailed entries for all known existing and planned projects. It includes fields for the owner/developer, location, commissioning date, capacity and other details. The database software is fully flexible as to how the entries are sorted and aggregated (eg: by state, by resource, by year of commissioning etc.) Advanced software is used to provide calculation and modeling capabilities and is currently under further development. In particular, capability is being added to account for above-baseline generation for each accredited pre-97 generator, and to model generation costs, and the delivered amount of energy, for all technologies and resources in any future year. The figures provided in this paper are not recommended for use as a basis for investment analysis or decision making. Those requiring such information should contact the author to obtain information specific to their needs. Sinclair Knight Merz takes no responsibility for any use of the information provided in this paper apart from as a basis for general discussion at the conference.